?Likely Voters? Lie

After the 2008 election, the Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner collected the names of 12,979 people who had, over the course of the year, described themselves to call-center operators as ?almost certain to vote? or ?will probably vote? and checked to see if they actually had. Masa Aida, a Greenberg analyst, matched respondents? names to a voter file maintained by the database vendor Catalist, and found that citizens had an unimpressive record of predicting their own behavior: Eighty-seven percent of those who described themselves as ?almost certain to vote? that November had done so, compared to 74 percent of those who said they ?probably? would.

Source: http://feeds.slate.com/click.phdo?i=30fa93706d547574cffaa55f3f42d9dd

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